Musings from the All Star Break

Quote of the Day: "It ain't over 'till it's over." (Yogi Bera)

Ending the first "half" of the season with a series win seems to have left everyone in a good mood - the Fan in Exile included. Berkman and Tejada went to NY for the All Star Game, and presumably everyone else went on vacation for a few days. A few notes about the game, and then my prognostications for what's left of the season.

When I came home from work on Tuesday, I turned on the live audio that I get with my mlb.tv subscription. I don't have a TV and the game video stream is only available after the fact. When they started introducing the starting players, flanked by their Hall of Fame counterparts, I was thinking how much I wish I could see what the older guys look like now. And then I suddenly remembered that when my daughter Leah bought her new TV recently, she left her old one in our den downstairs. I wasn't sure that we actually have any reception, since we don't have a working antenna, let alone cable. But it appeared that Fox, at least, comes in - although it did seem that the players were bravely slogging through a light snowstorm. My dog Shana and I got comfortable on the couch, planning to watch at least until Berkman and Tejada did their thing. It turned out to be a long night.

A few notes about the All Star game:

* The introduction of the starting lineups by position, rather than team, flanked by their Hall of Fame predecessors, was awesome. But I really, really don't care for the NY fans. It was great the way they cheered for their players and went nuts for Yogi. But the way they booed for the Red Sox players turned me off. Those players are at the ASG representing their personal accomplishments, not their team. And, by the way, the Yankees and the Sox are both on the same AL team. Yeah, I understand that they have a blood rivalry. No doubt it would be just the same in Boston. But booing the Sox HOFers was just gross. Frankly, I much prefer the decency of the long-time rivalry between the Astros and the Braves, or (up to this year) the Cardinals. I just can't imagine that, if this same scene was playing out in Atlanta 10 years from now, the fans there would boo Bagwell and Biggio.

* Sheryl Crow's Star Spangled Banner was kind of ehhh. Her the acoustic guitar accompaniment seemed superfluous, but her military accompaniment creeped me out. Why in the world did we need a stealth bomber flyover during the national anthem? (In the same light, the fireworks that are set off at Nationals ballpark when they sing "the bombs bursting in air" are also tacky and demeaning to the many people who are actually living in terror because of that.) And, sorry to be a crank, but... what did this little patriotic demonstration cost the taxpayers?

* I've never been to Yankee Stadium, and I dislike both NY ball clubs. But there's no denying the history of the place, the great moments there. And I cried, like I always do, when they play the clip of Lou Gerhig's farewell speech.

* I was disappointed that Berkman didn't hit a bomb out of the stadium during the game, but his sac-fly RBI was sweet.

* Viva Tejada! I heard a couple of people say that Tejada shouldn't have been there - probably more because of the drug investigation than his recent slump. But he was a player choice, not popular vote selection. And he played like an All Star - good hitting, aggressive base-running, and fabulous fielding. Looked like an All Star to me. Now he just needs to carry that energy and upbeat mood back to the Astros for the second half!

* Uggggghhhhhhh-la! I'm glad I'm not a Marlins fan, or Dan Uggla's mother. By the third fielding error (which didn't really look like an error to me - the ball took a bad hop), he must have been thinking that the ASG gods were mad at him. "Most errors" is not where you want to appear in the record book! But the errors didn't, in the long run, cost the NL team as much as his unheroic plate appearances at times that called for heroics - or even just a bloop single.

* I have to make a confession: I don't watch TV or movies, just baseball games, so I'm basically culturally retarded. I never heard of Josh Groban before. And I don't like singing God Bless America at baseball games - I don't care for the song, or for its post-9/11 usurping of TMOTTBG as the seventh inning stretch song. And I also don't generally like it when singers muck about with the notes or the rhythm of "classic" songs. So I was surprised that I did like Josh Groban's rendition of GBA. (I debated this with my mother in email; she didn't care for it at all.)

* If the Astros don't win the pennant this year (more on that below), the outcome of the ASG doesn't really matter to me. The home game advantage for the World Series, which goes to the league that wins, isn't an issue unless they're playing in Houston. I pick my World Series favorite on a team-by-team, not league, basis. I'll cheer for the Red Sox because my dad grew up in Boston, or for the Mariners or Rays because I have family there. I'll cheer against the Mets against anyone except the Yankees. So watching the whole game wasn't important to me - until it went into extra innings. Then, somewhat perversely, I felt like I had to stick with it to the end. It's kind of a point of honor for the game - now that it "counts" - not to be called as a tie, as it was several years ago. I don't know what would have happened had it gone longer, when the AL ran out of pitchers. I suspect that Kazmir would not have been allowed to pitch more than another inning. But it was just too bad that it had to be Brad Lidge who gave up the game-winning run. He's really had an amazing "come back" since being traded by the Astros - and I still think that he's Cy Young material.

* One last note, a take-away lesson for the Astros: Pitching wins ball games. This game went on for 15 innings, as world-class pitchers threw against the best batters in the major leagues. People can say what they want about the All Star Game being a popularity contest, with players selected by the fans. Well, the fan-selected players were long gone by the last 9 innings of the game - it was the reserves, selected by the players themselves, who were out on the field until the end. They got lots of guys on base, but the pitching came through inning after inning, winning the battle against the batters and base runners. With all that power-hitting talent out there, it was a low-scoring game - another reminder that pitching wins ball games in the end.

Now on to my mid-season ramblings...

If I were a sports writer, and my professional reputation were on the line, I would say the same thing as Alyson Footer and the guys at the Chronicle: This isn't the year for the Astros. Yeah, they have a long history of being a great second half team (but so do their rivals, the Cards). But even with a good run, the Astros are not likely to pull a winning record out of this season.

But I'm not a sports writer. To the best of my knowledge, I am the only reader of this blog, which is basically just a convenient online format for maintaining my personal baseball season diary. So I can write whatever I want, without having to deal with rude and annoying comments from blog-bashers. As a fan-in-exile, I'm allowed to express optimism or even just plain wishful thinking, rather than a professional writer's cold hard assessment of reality. That is why, when the Chronicle gave up on the Astros in 2005, my mid-term predictions were talking about winning the pennant. (You can read them yourself: Click here for my mid-term predictions for 2005.) I was actually wrong about almost all of my specific player-by-player predictions, but I got the important one right: The Astros did win the pennant and they did play in the World Series.

So here's where I'd go with wishful thinking: The Astros will have an immense second half. The starting pitching will be a challenge, to say the least, but there will be some good surprises there. Wandy will have a vindicating year. A promise: If he wins 10 games in the second half, I will start calling him Rodriguez. Backe will need to be more consistently like he was in the finale against the Nats. (If he is, he'll be leading the game in batting average!) I'm mixed on Roy O - with his recent injury, I'm not sure what's going to happen with him. I doubt that Wade will be able to get another good starter, given that demand exceeds supply. Sampson might need to go back into the rotation, although he seems to be much better as a reliever. I just hope that Runelvys Hernandez or Jack Cassel can pull off some wins. The light rotation will put more pressure on the bullpen, and they will continue to pitch well. Geary, Brocail, and Valverde will shine, and our Rule 5, lefty Wright, will turn out to be a huge bonus for the Astros. I'm hoping for better pitching from Borkowski - he's been an inning-eater in the past, which the Astros will need to back up the weak rotation. It would help if Wade can pick up another relief arm in a trade this month.

Meanwhile, the offense is going to be off and on, but more on than it was in the first half - the Astros will end the season with the highest team BA in the league. Berkman and Lee will duke it out for first place in the NL for RBIs, and Berkman will lead the league in OPS. Tejada will get hot again, and Pence will turn it around big-time with a huge second half. I can't predict what's going to happen with Bourn and Towles - they seem like great guys, and I'm cheering for them both, but it's hard even for an over-optimistic fan-in-exile to call that. On the other hand, remember that Towles holds the team record for most RBIs in a game - 8 last September, when he hit .400-something. He has a spark of greatness somewhere in him. On the other hand, Q will be back from the DL soon (with a beefed-up catcher's helmet), so Towles might have to wait for next year.

Bottom line: I'm going to go with wishful thinking and predict another trip to the playoffs, after another terrific second half.

And if it doesn't work out? Just go back and read the bottom line of my 2005 mid-term predictions. I might engage now in then in a bit of tough love. "But I will NEVER boo my own team."