GAMES 46-50: Has the Chronicle Run the Tombstone Yet?

GAME 46 - May 26: Astros 5, Brewers 0
GAME 47 - May 27: Brewers 4, Astros 3
GAME 48 - May 28: Reds 15, Astros 6
GAME 49 - May 29: Reds 12, Astros 2
GAME 50 - May 30: Astros 2, Reds 0

The Astros' run into the Memorial Day Weekend begs for a special kind of memorial: The Tombstone labeled RIP for the Astros season. Like the one that the Houston Chronicle ran in 2005:

I've always kind of thought that that it was that in-your-face loss of faith by the hometown rag that turned the Astros around in 2005. Here's the headline from Jose de Jesus Ortiz's column that day: "It's June 1; Astros season pretty much over." And here's what I said in my game diary that day: "I know I'm a sucker for the Astros. But I'm not giving up yet." Really - you can read my 2005 game diary here.

Last week when the Astros hit 15-30 there was a lot of banter about how that magic number was somehow going to result in another pennant in 2010 -- a lot of it coming from me. And a whole lot more banter about how that was wishful, or even delusional, thinking. Some of the latter came from cranks and bashers, but much of it was from thoughtful and reasonable people, like  fellow blogger River Austin and Astros social media director Alyson Footer. I admit that I kind of lean towards their point of view when I'm being thoughtful and reasonable. Or when I'm just plain frustrated, like last night when I checked the scoreboard after the Sabbath ended and saw that the Reds had outscored the Astros 27-8 in the Friday and Saturday games.

But then I go back and read snippets from my game diary in the first third of the 2005 season, and I'm overwhelmed with how awful that team was, and how similar the problems were. Take the June 1 game, which the Astros won 4-1 over the Reds. Quote from then-manager Garner: "As long as it was one more than they had." That was in response being asked what he thought of the Astros scoring FOUR (count 'em, 4!) runs in one game. Sound familiar? Do you remember how the Astros were shut out TEN TIMES in the first two full months of the season? How the Pirates shut out the Astros in both games of a two-game series? In the first two months, the Astros were unbelievably inept at scoring runs, and it was unthinkable that even their 1-2-3 punch of pitchers (Oswalt, Clemens, and Pettitte) could dig them out of the hole they were hiding in. If you want to feel any hope whatsoever for this equally horrible season, go back and read my game diaries from May, 2005 - they're on my Astros Fan in Exile website (or just click here).

More reasonable and less optimistic minds than mine will point out that when they did turn around, the 2005 Astros actually had a lot better raw materials to work with, starting with that Trynamic Trio of starting pitchers. With Oswalt (if he isn't traded) and Wandy (if he can repeat or beat last year), we've got a Dynamic Duo, but the rest is up for grabs. The bullpen, in general, has been performing - I've been impressed by that since Spring Training. And, although the batting has been (FILL IN YOUR OWN CURSE WORD HERE), the power potential of this lineup is tremendous. I cannot explain what would cause players like Berkman, Pence, and Lee to hit as badly as they did in the start of this season. But in case you weren't paying attention, these guys aren't batting under .200 anymore. Pence has made a huge jump - his batting average is up to .278  and he's knocked in 8 homers, most of them in recent games. Berkman hasn't made quite as flamboyant improvement, but the general direction has been up. Lee, well, I don't know what to say about El Caballo. The Astros have also shown a willingness to cut out some of their non-performing starters to give other players a chance - so long Matsui, welcome Keppinger.

Seems to me that, if you go back and look at the roster from 2005, our current team should be churning out a lot more runs than the team that won the Pennant (and then, by the way, failed to produce runs in the World Series). The 2005 Astros ended up ranking pretty low in most of the batting categories except for getting hit by pitches. No one on that lineup hit .300 in 2005. They did have guys who could hit long balls - that was the year Ensberg hit 36 homers, with Lane (26), Biggio (26), and Berkman (24) doing their fair share. But overall, despite the horrible stats to start this season, I think the current Astros team will turn out to be better offensively than the 2005 gang. Defensively, it's a solid team also - except perhaps for Carlos Lee in left. He's just painful to watch.

This is a long rambling excuse for saying that I haven't yet written off the 2010 Astros. In my heart of hearts, I don't really BELIEVE they will make the playoffs (okay, Austin?), but I do think that they are incredibly underperforming, and that they can have a winning season. I don't really think that they are worse than the 2005 team that won the Pennant. But I will admit that the 2005 Astros might have just been an freaky aberration of baseball history - the last chance for Biggio and Bagwell to play in the World Series just kind of magically happened.

I guess I should throw in a few words about the ball games listed at the top of this blog. Game 46, Oswalt's first start since he asked to be traded, looked like his audition for a role on a contending team. He did just about everything right in his tenth quality start of the season: He shut out the Brewers for 8 innings, giving up only 4 hits and 1 walks, and striking out 9. His ERA is down to 2.35, and only the Astros abysmal inability to score on his watch can account for his 3-6 record. This guy should be one of the top winners in the league. If he was annoyed with all of the no-decisions the Astros handed him last year, he's got to be fuming over the losses he's been stuck with so far this year. Hard to blame him for wanting a trade, but of course I'm hoping that he doesn't get it. He must have been just about in shock in last Wednesday's game, with the Astros scoring in 4 of the first 5 innings. This game was a perfect example of what would go right if the middle of our lineup would just get hits: Pence, Lee, and Berkman (batting 3, 4, and 5) went 7 for 12, with a couple of walks also, and batted in 4 of the 5 runs. Sure, they weren't batting against a Cy Young contender (Narveson), but this is how the heart of the order is supposed to bat!

I missed Thursday afternoon's game, while I was keeping my husband company in the hospital as he had a medical procedure done. I did follow it off and on, using my Blackberry, keeping an eye on the Astros' slim lead. Right up until Lindstrom gave up the tying run in the bottom of the ninth and then walked in the winning run in the tenth. And no, I didn't watch the video of that game on the archive when I got home. I was already gloomy enough that my 14-year old Saturn died on the way back home from the hospital (clutch just stopped clutching). We did get home safely, abandoning the car in a bus lane. And the good news is that my husband checked out with excellent results. I'll have to buy a new car, but can keep the same husband.

The Astros moved to Division-leading Cincinnati for the weekend. I don't watch ballgames on the Sabbath, so I missed hours of angst as the Reds clobbered the Astros, 15-6 on Friday night and 12-2 on Saturday. The Reds' Friday starter may be a Cy Young contender - but not until some time in the future. This was his ML debut. The Astros were not able to capitalize on the opportunity, however; they only scored 2 runs off of him in his 6 inning start. They actually put up a crooked number in the 8th, but too little, too late - the Reds were seriously into double digits. Wandy had another poor start, giving up 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings. I only watched one half inning of this debacle: The bottom of the 8th, when the Astros were down 14-6, and Mills had already used Chacin, Fulchino, Byrdak, and Lopez. Not wanting to burn up any more of the bullpen in what appeared to be a sure-thing loss, Mills brought in  backup catcher Kevin Cash to pitch. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits - not bad in the context of this game. The other pitchers were worse.

I turned on my computer in the late innings of Saturday night's game, saw that the Astros were behind 11-1, and decided to play TextTwist on my iPod Touch instead. Brian Moehler, moved to the starting rotation to replace Bud Norris (who's on the DL), outdid Wandy, giving up his 8 ER in less than 3 innings. Wesley Wright, recently called back up to the Astros, contributed 3 runs in the last 4 innings. Ultimately, the Astros went on to lose 12-2, after having given up 6 homers to the Reds. My cousin Bill in Dayton can send me a thank you note for our sacrifice.

I started this game report with a shutout performance by Roy Oswalt, with rare run support from his teammates. I end it with a similarly excellent shutout performance by Felipe Paulino. He'll probably get a sympathetic pat on the back from the Wiz. The Astros stranded runners right and left without scoring a single run during Paulino's watch. Paulino was awesome - in 8 innings, he gave up no runs on 4 hits, 4 walks, striking out 5 with that 97 MPH fast ball going. At the plate, he went 2 for 3, to maintain his position as the Astros' highest BA.

Before the game, Alyson Footer tweeted that she was not entertaining suggestions from fans that the Astros should sack Mills because of the team's poor record. I think Mills showed great management in this game, especially in his handling of his starting pitcher in the 8th. Paulino's pitch count was okay, but it was a hot afternoon, very enervating. He led off the inning with a 4 pitch walk, then got the next 2 batters, and walked another. That brought Jay Bruce to the plate - a guy who hit 2 homers in last night's game. Mills let Paulino stay in - it was his shutout to lose, and possibly still to win. Bruce grounded out to end the threat. The message Mills sent to Paulino was pretty clear - he was giving him every chance possible to earn his first W of the season.

Unfortunately his team mates weren't in on the plan. They failed to score in the ninth inning, and Paulino got a no-decision. Lyon pitched a nail-biting ninth, giving up a single and a pair of walks to load up the bases with 2 outs. The count on the next batter was 2-2, and the broadcasters were wondering if the Astros would end a game by walking in a run for the second time this week. I was tweeting that I'd rather lose on a hit than walk in a run, when the batter hit a fly ball to the gap in right center -- looked like a hit for sure. But Pence galloped over and made a running catch to push the game into extra innings. To give credit where it is due, Lyon did make an excellent - and very gutsy - fielding play on a bunt. With runners on first and second and no outs, he threw to third to knock out the lead runner. Just barely. (Or if you believe Alyson Footer, a generous call from the third base ump.)

The broadcasters took time to mention that the last time the Astros took a scoreless game into extra innings was back in 2005. They didn't mention the outcome, but I looked it up in my game diary - it was against the Braves, and the Astros lost 1-0 in 12 innings. That game had started with 7 scoreless innings from Clemens - back in 2005 the Astros did to the Rocket what they are doing this year to the Wiz.

If the Astros had lost today's game, the Big Puma would probably have renamed himself the Big Goat. He came up in the first and third innings with two runners on, and both times hit into double plays, then grounded out to end the 5th with two runners stranded, and lined out in the 8th. All in all, a miserable day. Some folks might think that he was doomed when he came up to bat in the tenth inning with two runners on and two outs. I preferred to think that he was just OVERDUE for a hit. Sure enough, he drove the first pitch he saw into right field for a double, scoring both runners. Goat to Hero in a single swing!!! Carlos Lee apparently thought that with all the great Astros pitching, nothing more was required, and he lined out to complete his 0 for 5 day. Thankfully, Lindstrom did not make things too interesting in the bottom of the tenth, ending the game with a nice swinging strikeout for his 11th save. Despite the fact that he was arguably the worst Astros pitcher of the day, Lyon got the win - his fourth of the season. Sadly (for our starters), he now leads the team in wins.

So, the Astros were outscored 27-10 in Cincinnati, but managed to eke out a win, spoiling the sweep and breaking a nine-game losing streak (dating back to last season) in Great American Ballpark. It was a lousy road trip, and they are still 16 games under .500, and 12.5 games behind in the division. And they are still the worst team in the league and second worst in the majors. But at least they won today and can go home happy with that. I think I'll have another glass of Rioja.